Renault has put a hard number on the table. On 13 October 2026, the group said it could cut production of around 300,000 European-built cars unless it gets more flexibility on the 2030 CO2 targets.
A day later, ACEA set out in writing what it wants from Brussels. The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association represents 17 Europe-based carmakers and is chaired by Ola Källenius of Mercedes-Benz.
The industry's four demands
ACEA's light-duty vehicle board met in Brussels on 14 October 2026. It called for the EU to finalise the automotive package in early 2027[1], built around four points:
- five-year averaging of CO2 emissions, starting in 2028;
- a separate trajectory for vans;
- super-credits for electric cars and vans built in the EU;
- extra credits for small cars.
ACEA also wants the Industrial Accelerator Act to take account of supply chains and investment in neighbouring countries, including the UK.
These are a trade association's demands. They matter as a negotiating position but have no legal effect.
The law, the proposal, the request
The text in force
Article 1 of Regulation (EU) 2019/631 sets the CO2 targets for new cars and vans. By 2030, average emissions from new cars must fall 55% from 2021 levels. For vans the cut is 50%.
From 2035 the cut rises to 100% for both. This text remains law across the EU until Parliament and Council hold their final vote on the package.
The Commission's proposal
On 16 December 2025, the European Commission proposed changing these figures:
- 2035: a 90% cut from 2021 levels, roughly 11 g/km instead of zero;
- the remaining 10%: up to 7% offset by low-carbon EU-made steel and up to 3% by climate-neutral fuels;
- 2030: the target averaged over 2030–2032;
- super-credits for EVs shorter than 4.20 metres;
- vans: the 2030 target eased from 50% to 40%.
This is a proposal. It only becomes law once Parliament and Council vote it through.
The timetable in Strasbourg
The European Parliament's Transport Committee was due to vote on 5 October 2026. The vote has slipped by about two weeks, electrive reports[2].
The rapporteur is Jens Gieseke of Germany's CDU (the centre-right Christian Democratic Union), part of the EPP group. The plenary vote is expected in November 2026.
How a longer averaging window shifts the fine
Right now, compliance is assessed one year at a time.
Take a carmaker that sells fewer EVs than planned in 2030. Under single-year compliance, the overshoot stays in 2030 and so does the fine.
Under the Commission's proposed 2030–2032 averaging, the same carmaker can make up the gap in 2031 and 2032 by selling more EVs. The fine moves further out. Two strong years could wipe it out altogether.
ACEA's proposed five-year averaging widens the window again. Because it starts in 2028, it pulls the years both before and after the 2030 deadline into the same calculation.
Article 8 of the regulation sets the excess emissions premium per gram over target for every car sold. The cap itself barely moves. What changes is the year the bill comes due.
Who carries the liability
The obligation falls on the manufacturer, or on a group of brands that pool their emissions.
Readings of the data differ. For Transport & Environment, the shift to EVs is already delivering[3]. ACEA says the industry needs more headroom and more time.
Every group's 2028–2032 business plan now rests on three different texts. Only the regulation in force is law.
Decisions to put on the record
- Which text the 2030 CO2 plan is built on. A budget built on 2030–2032 averaging depends on a proposal. A plan calibrated to the law in force holds up whatever the vote decides.
- Who signs off on the fine estimate. Name the person accountable for the Article 8 exposure before the 2027 budget is approved.
- What to tell investors. The notes to the financial statements should keep the law, the Commission's proposal and ACEA's request clearly separate.
The vote to watch in November
- Law in force: Regulation (EU) 2019/631, with 2030 and 2035 targets, applicable across the EU.
- Proposal: European Commission, 16 December 2025, under review in Parliament.
- Request: ACEA, 14 October 2026, calling for the package to close in early 2027.
- Timetable: Transport Committee vote postponed from 5 October 2026; plenary expected in November 2026.
Forecast: the text adopted by the Transport Committee keeps the Commission's 2030–2032 averaging. Five-year averaging from 2028 doesn't make it in.
Confidence: 60 out of 100.
Horizon: the November 2026 plenary vote.
What would prove me wrong: the committee adopting an amendment that extends the window to five years from 2028. A second signal would be another delay that pushes the plenary past November.
This article was written by an AI editorial author under human supervision, in line with the transparency obligations of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (AI Act, Art. 50). Sources are linked in the text.
Article by ATLAS